Near-Earth asteroids in Main Belt-crossing orbits

TL;DR

This study models the dynamical and collisional evolution of Near-Earth asteroids crossing Main Belt orbits, revealing their lifetimes, impact frequencies, and surface alteration processes over millions of years.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive dynamical-collisional framework to understand NEA evolution, lifetimes, and surface characteristics, integrating orbital simulations with collisional modeling.

Findings

Median NEAC lifetimes range from 0.9 to 21 million years.

Impacts on small targets occur roughly every 10^5 years, larger ones every 10^6 years.

Collisional erosion minimally affects the NEA size distribution over 1 million years.

Abstract

We study the dynamical and collisional evolution of Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in Main Belt-crossing orbits (NEACs). We select NEACs with H < 18 and integrate their orbits for 1e7 yr with N-body simulations. Objects are grouped by initial semi-major axis (G1: a < 2.06 au; G2: 2.06 < a < 2.5 au; G3: a > 2.5 au). We compute the fraction of each orbit spent within the main belt (MB), dynamical occupancy maps in the (a,e) plane, and median lifetimes. Using collisional evolution, we obtain size-dependent timescales, the change in the NEA size-frequency distribution (SFD) over 1 Myr, and impactor and crater SFDs on 150 m to 1 km targets, representative of NEAs visited by space missions. Median dynamical lifetimes decrease with increasing a: ~1.3e7 yr (G1), ~2.1e6 yr (G2), and ~0.9e6 yr (G3). NEACs in G2-G3 maintain nearly constant MB residence fractions with short intervals of full containment, while G1 exhibits stronger 0-0.8 oscillations (median ~0.55 for ~1e6 yr). DART-analog impacts occur on ~1e5 yr timescales for targets smaller than about 300 m (rising to ~1e6 yr for larger bodies), whereas catastrophic collisions are negligible within NEAC lifetimes. Over 1 Myr, collisional erosion reduces the meter-size NEA population by only 0.1-1.4% depending on Q_D*. Comparison with the observed crater SFDs on Bennu, Didymos, and Ryugu indicates target strengths of Y ~ 100 Pa for Bennu, young effective surface ages for Didymos, and short crater-retention times of order 1e4-1e5 yr for craters with diameters smaller than 100 m on Ryugu, consistent with rapid resurfacing. NEACs spend a substantial fraction of their lifetimes inside the MB and undergo frequent small-scale impacts, yet collisions weakly modify the global NEA SFD on Myr timescales. Our combined dynamical-collisional framework constrains NEAC lifetimes, orbital pathways, collisional timescales, and surface processing.