Predictions of the LSST Solar System (non-)Yield

TL;DR

This paper predicts which solar system objects the LSST will not detect, highlighting various failure modes and the implications of non-detections for understanding the solar system.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive analysis of non-yield populations using synthetic models and survey simulations, revealing specific detection failures.

Findings

Objects missed due to telescope downtime and chip gaps.

Detection failures for objects with short orbital arcs.

Confirmation of the non-existence of the Death Star within LSST data.

Abstract

We present predictions for solar system objects the Vera C.\ Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will not detect over its ten-year baseline survey. Employing state-of-the-art synthetic population models and the \texttt{Sorcha} survey simulator, we identify non-yield populations spanning geometric, photometric, kinematic, temporal, and computational failure modes. Notable subpopulations include objects whose peak brightness coincides exclusively with scheduled telescope downtime, objects whose detections fall within Rubin focal plane chip gaps, and objects whose orbital arcs expire before linking jobs are dispatched from the compute queue. We additionally characterise the non-yield arising from the Death Star (DS-1; $D \approx 160$~km), whose orbital mechanics (when constrained by the well-established Endor engagement geometry \citep{lucas83}) place it at a maximum heliocentric distance of $27.5$~au and an apparent magnitude of $m_r \approx 19$-23, squarely within the LSST operational photometric window. Its absence from the LSST alert stream is interpreted as confirmation of its destruction at the Battle of Endor. The failure to detect the Sun within the LSST should be a stark warning to the community of the LSST's inability to catalogue the solar system (by mass).