Bayesian methods for the identification of model parameters for water transport in porous media

TL;DR

This paper employs Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo to analyze the sensitivity and identifiability of hydraulic parameters in porous media water transport, providing a geometric sensitivity hierarchy.

Contribution

It introduces a Bayesian framework that characterizes the parameter sensitivity structure through posterior covariance decomposition, offering a novel alternative to classical sensitivity analysis.

Findings

Accurate recovery of parameters in synthetic experiments.

Posterior geometry reveals sensitivity hierarchy of parameters.

Method successfully applied to real laboratory data.

Abstract

The structure of the nonlinear inverse problem arising from capillarity-driven imbibition in porous media is investigated, considering a degenerate parabolic PDE with compactly supported diffusivity and boundary-driven fluxes as the governing forward model. The inverse problem -- inferring hydraulic model parameters from sparse integral absorption measurements -- is inherently ill-posed: the nonlinear forward operator induces anisotropic parameter sensitivity and structured correlations that render the calibration landscape non-convex and partially unidentifiable. To characterise this structure rigorously, Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) is adopted as a likelihood-free inferential framework, bypassing the analytical intractability of the likelihood while providing full posterior distributions over the parameter space. Two physically motivated parameterisations of the diffusivity function are analysed -- the Natalini-Nitsch (NN) and the BkP formulations. It is shown that the posterior geometry obtained via ABC-SMC encodes, in directly readable form, the sensitivity structure of the nonlinear forward operator: the principal component decomposition of the posterior covariance provides a natural hierarchy of parameter sensitivity, with low-variance eigendirections identifying the parameter combinations to which the forward map is most responsive. This geometric decomposition constitutes a principled and computationally efficient alternative to classical sensitivity analysis, arising as a byproduct of the calibration procedure. These findings are established through both synthetic experiments, confirming accurate parameter recovery, and real laboratory imbibition data from materials of cultural heritage relevance.