Introducing PxP: A Population Synthesis Framework for Predicting YSO Properties

TL;DR

PxP is a novel framework combining population synthesis, PCA, and maximum likelihood fitting to predict YSO properties and star formation history from observations, demonstrated on JWST and Spitzer data.

Contribution

The paper introduces PxP, a new integrated framework for predicting YSO ages and masses using models, PCA, and likelihood fitting, validated on real datasets.

Findings

PxP accurately predicts YSO mass and age in test cases.

Application to N44 yields consistent mass and age with previous studies.

Application to NGC 604 identifies new YSO candidates with estimated properties.

Abstract

The most direct method of measuring the star formation rate is with young stellar objects (YSOs), but this requires high-resolution observations and high-quality models. Using the latest YSO radiation transfer and stellar evolution models, we have developed a population synthesis code that generates model YSO populations that can be observed by JWST. We combine these model populations with principal component analysis (PCA) and maximum likelihood fitting to create a complete framework for predicting the age and mass of YSO populations. We dub this combination of Population synthesis and PCA, PxP, and show that it is effective at predicting mass and age with self-fitting tests. We apply PxP to the Spitzer identified YSOs in N44 and find a mass of (1.1+-0.1)*10^4 M_sun and an age of 0.74^{+0.06}_{-0.03} Myr, consistent with previous work. Next, we identify 112 YSO candidates in the archival JWST observations of NGC 604. Applying PxP to this newly identified population we find a mass of (2.2+-0.2)*10^4 M_sun and an age of 0.62+-0.01 Myr. This first look at this framework demonstrates its effectiveness with a specific set of models and leaves clear opportunities for future exploration. PxP allows us to directly determine the recent (<3~Myr) star formation history, giving an unprecedented look at the effect of the large-scale environment on individual star formation.