AI prediction leads people to forgo guaranteed rewards

TL;DR

This study demonstrates that belief in AI's predictive power can cause individuals to limit their decisions, often sacrificing guaranteed rewards, with significant behavioral and economic impacts across various contexts.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence that AI's perceived predictive authority influences human decision-making, leading to self-constraining behaviors and economic consequences.

Findings

Over 40% of participants viewed AI as a predictive authority.

Belief in AI prediction increased the likelihood of forgoing guaranteed rewards by 3.39 times.

Participants' earnings decreased by 10.7-42.9% due to AI influence.

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) is understood to affect the content of people's decisions. Here, using a behavioral implementation of the classic Newcomb's paradox in 1,305 participants, we show that AI can also change how people decide. In this paradigm, belief in predictive authority can lead individuals to constrain decision-making, forgoing a guaranteed reward. Over 40% of participants treated AI as such a predictive authority. This significantly increased the odds of forgoing the guaranteed reward by a factor of 3.39 (95% CI: 2.45-4.70) compared with random framing, and reduced earnings by 10.7-42.9%. The effect appeared across AI presentations and decision contexts and persisted even when predictions failed. When people believe AI can predict their behavior, they may self-constrain it in anticipation of that prediction.