Data is All You Need: Markov Chain Car-Following (MC-CF) Model

TL;DR

The paper introduces the MC-CF model, a data-driven, probabilistic car-following framework that outperforms traditional physics-based models in accuracy, robustness, and scalability, capturing the stochastic nature of naturalistic driving behavior.

Contribution

It proposes the Markov Chain Car-Following (MC-CF) model, a novel, calibration-free approach that leverages empirical data to accurately simulate stochastic traffic dynamics.

Findings

MC-CF outperforms IDM, Gipps, FVDM, and SIDM in trajectory prediction accuracy.

Model-generated trajectories are statistically indistinguishable from real-world data.

Zero-shot generalization and ring road simulations demonstrate the model's robustness and scalability.

Abstract

Car-following behavior is fundamental to traffic flow theory, yet traditional models often fail to capture the stochasticity of naturalistic driving. This paper introduces a new car-following modeling category called the empirical probabilistic paradigm, which bypasses conventional parametric assumptions. Within this paradigm, we propose the Markov Chain Car-Following (MC-CF) model, which represents state transitions as a Markov process and predicts behavior by randomly sampling accelerations from empirical distributions within discretized state bins. Evaluation of the MC-CF model trained on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrates that its variants significantly outperform physics-based models including IDM, Gipps, FVDM, and SIDM in both one-step and open-loop trajectory prediction accuracy. Statistical analysis of transition probabilities confirms that the model-generated trajectories are indistinguishable from real-world behavior, successfully reproducing the probabilistic structure of naturalistic driving across all interaction types. Zero-shot generalization on the Naturalistic Phoenix (PHX) dataset further confirms the model's robustness. Finally, microscopic ring road simulations validate the framework's scalability. By incrementally integrating unconstrained free-flow trajectories and high-speed freeway data (TGSIM) alongside a conservative inference strategy, the model drastically reduces collisions, achieving zero crashes in multiple equilibrium and shockwave scenarios, while successfully reproducing naturalistic and stochastic shockwave propagation. Overall, the proposed MC-CF model provides a robust, scalable, and calibration-free foundation for high-fidelity stochastic traffic modeling, uniquely suited for the data-rich future of intelligent transportation.