Omega-blocks with spatially compounding extremes over Europe are highly sensitive to remote atmospheric drivers

TL;DR

This study shows that small upstream differences in warm conveyor belt activity can predict extreme compound weather events in Europe days in advance, using ensemble modeling and Lagrangian tracking.

Contribution

It introduces ensemble boosting and Lagrangian tracking to identify upstream atmospheric precursors of omega-block related extremes over Europe.

Findings

Upstream WCB activity differences can predict extreme events five days ahead.

Ensemble boosting generates numerous plausible omega-block scenarios.

Lagrangian tracking links WCB outflow variations to downstream impacts.

Abstract

Omega-blocks can trigger spatially compounding heat-precipitation extremes with severe societal impacts, as seen in September 2023 when a heatwave over France coincided with devastating floods in the Iberian Peninsula and Greece. Although blocking in general has been linked to moist processes in upstream warm conveyor belts (WCBs), it has remained unexplored whether and how upstream WCB activity influences the evolution of omega-blocks and downstream flood-heat-flood impacts. Here, we show that already five days ahead, small differences in the upstream evolution - particularly in WCB outflow regions - distinguish cases that later produce extreme compound events over Europe from weaker ones, even though their large-scale anomalies initially appear similar. We illustrate the distinct evolution in remote locations by analyzing storylines simulated in a fully coupled climate model. Using ensemble boosting, we generate hundreds of physically plausible simulations of omega-prone situations. Lagrangian air parcel tracking reveals that variations in WCB outflow areas can explain differences in upstream precursors and downstream effects over Europe. Our results highlight ensemble boosting as a powerful approach to systematically track dynamical differences along model-based event storylines, important for understanding and anticipating compound extremes striking multiple regions simultaneously.