Network Evolution and National Interests: Global Scientific Reorganization and the Rise of Scientific Nationalism

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how China's integration into the global scientific network has reshaped influence and collaboration patterns, challenging traditional views of national competition.

Contribution

It applies structural holes theory and the Bianconi-Barabasi model to explain China's role in the evolving scientific collaboration network.

Findings

China's entry accelerated network maturation and reduced U.S. brokerage influence.

U.S. betweenness centrality declined while bilateral ties remained strong.

China's early participation predicted subsequent structural changes across fields.

Abstract

The global network of scientific cooperation has undergone major restructuring over the past two decades, with important implications for geopolitics and science policy. China's integration into this network has redistributed positions of influence in ways that challenge zero-sum views of national competition and security. Drawing on structural holes theory and the Bianconi-Barabasi fitness model, we argue that China's entry accelerated an ongoing process of network maturation. As China's scientific capacity expanded, it formed direct collaborations that reduced reliance on U.S. intermediation. Network analysis shows a large decline in U.S. betweenness centrality, while weighted measures remain stable, indicating a loss of brokerage advantages but continued strong bilateral ties. Granger causality tests suggest that China's early participation predicted later structural changes across fields. Results are consistent across six major domains.