Assessing VBz variations during CME propagation: a preparatory study for the HENON mission using EUHFORIA

TL;DR

This study evaluates the potential of the HENON mission to forecast space weather by analyzing VB_z variations during CME propagation using EUHFORIA simulations, demonstrating reliable early warnings 2-8 hours ahead.

Contribution

It assesses HENON's capability to predict geomagnetic activity by simulating VB_z variations along its orbit with EUHFORIA, aiding space weather forecasting.

Findings

VB_z values along HENON orbit are similar to near-Earth measurements.

HENON can provide space weather alerts 2-8 hours in advance.

Simulations show reliable VB_z estimates for forecasting.

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the main drivers of space weather hazards. In this context, HENON is a new space mission designed to carry out observations in the solar wind upstream of the Earth, aiming to provide timely alerts for hazardous perturbations propagating towards the Earth. HENON will orbit Earth on a distant retrograde orbit, approximately 0.082 AU upstream of the Earth when it is on the Sun-Earth line. The measurements taken by HENON will allow us to determine plasma and magnetic field parameters with a lead time of several hours with respect to the Lagrangian point L1. We assess the VB_z parameter variations (the product of solar wind speed V and southward magnetic field B_z) along the HENON orbit. Given its role as a primary driver of geomagnetic activity, we analyse how these measurements change with respect to Earth's position to evaluate HENON's forecasting potential. We used the FRi3D CME model of the EUHFORIA simulation code to characterize the initial properties of the CME. FRi3D allows us to set the CME magnetic field as a magnetic flux rope. From the simulation results, we evaluated the VB_z parameter at nine virtual spacecraft positions along the planned HENON orbit. The heliocentric longitudes of the virtual spacecraft range from about -6.9{\deg} to 6.9{\deg}, while the geocentric longitudes vary from -60{\deg} to +60{\deg} in steps of 15{\deg}. The initial direction of propagation of the CME central apex is either along the Sun-Earth line or at heliocentric longitudes of {\pm}30{\deg}. We find that with the proposed orbital parameters, the values of the VBz parameter along the HENON orbit are sufficiently similar to those measured in the vicinity of the Earth to be useful for space weather forecasts. HENON enables reliable VB_z estimates 2-8 hours in advance, improving space weather forecasting and protection of critical infrastructure and satellites.