StretchCast: Global-Regional AI Weather Forecasting on Stretched Cubed-Sphere Mesh

TL;DR

StretchCast introduces a variable-resolution global-regional AI weather forecasting framework on a stretched cubed-sphere mesh, enabling efficient, stable, and realistic medium-range forecasts with joint multistep training.

Contribution

It develops a novel SCS-based framework with models for global-regional coupling, demonstrating feasibility and benefits with a coarse-resolution proof-of-concept.

Findings

SCS_Base Model achieves stable multivariate forecasts with 23M parameters.

SCS_FCST4 Model delivers competitive medium-range anomaly-correlation.

Results show smooth cross-face continuity and realistic multiscale typhoon structures.

Abstract

Global AI weather forecasting still relies mainly on uniform-resolution models, making it hard to combine regional refinement, two-way regional-global coupling, and affordable training cost. We introduce StretchCast, a global-regional AI forecasting framework built on a variable-resolution stretched cubed-sphere (SCS) mesh that preserves a closed global domain while concentrating resolution over a target region. Within this framework, we develop a one-step predictor, SCS_Base Model, and a rollout-oriented multistep predictor, SCS_FCST4 Model, to test the feasibility of SCS-based forecasting and the benefit of joint multistep training. Experiments use ERA5 with 69 variables over 1998-2022. Because training compute remains limited, this study uses a coarse-resolution proof-of-concept configuration rather than a final high-resolution system. Even with only about 7,776 effective global grid cells and roughly 0.875 degree resolution over the center-refined face, the 23M-parameter SCS_Base Model yields stable multivariate forecasts. With 83M parameters and training cost on the order of hours, SCS_FCST4 Model delivers competitive medium-range anomaly-correlation evolution over the target region after unified reprojection, especially for geopotential height, specific humidity, and part of the lower-tropospheric winds, while maintaining smooth cross-face continuity and realistic multiscale structure in typhoon and spectral analyses. These results support StretchCast as a practical lightweight foundation for global-regional AI weather forecasting.