Heatwave-Related Mortality Across Indian Cities Under Future Climate Scenarios
Ingita Dey Munshi, Abbinav Sankar Kailasam, Sudeep Shukla, K. Shuvo Bakar, Anirban Chakraborti

TL;DR
This study projects future heatwave-related mortality in 67 Indian cities under different climate scenarios, showing significant increases especially under high emissions, emphasizing the importance of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Contribution
It integrates long-term mortality data with bias-corrected climate projections to quantify future heat-related deaths at city and regional levels in India.
Findings
Heat-related mortality is projected to increase multi-fold under high-emission scenarios.
Regional disparities in heat mortality are expected to widen, with certain areas more vulnerable.
Climate mitigation can significantly reduce future heat-related health impacts.
Abstract
Heatwaves are intensifying as a major climate extreme and have emerged as a growing public health threat in rapidly urbanizing regions such as India. In this study, we integrate long-term heat-related mortality records (1970-2023) with bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections to quantify future heatwave-related mortality across 67 Indian cities under intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. A time-series forecasting framework was applied using summer mean temperature as the primary climate driver to project mortality trajectories through the end of the 21st century. Results indicate a strong and sustained increase in heat-related mortality under both scenarios, with multi-fold amplification under SSP5-8.5 relative to SSP2-4.5, reflecting the high sensitivity of health outcomes to emission pathways. Spatial analysis reveals increasing regional divergence under…
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Taxonomy
TopicsClimate Change and Health Impacts · Climate variability and models · Air Quality and Health Impacts
