Primary creep encodes time to failure across laboratory and natural systems

TL;DR

This study reveals that the duration of early creep phases in various materials and natural systems can predict the time to failure, offering a universal framework for rupture forecasting.

Contribution

It demonstrates a nearly linear correlation between early creep duration and time to failure across diverse laboratory and natural systems, unifying failure prediction methods.

Findings

Early creep duration correlates with time to failure over five orders of magnitude.

A unified scaling law applies across laboratory and natural systems.

Early-time creep dynamics encode the full evolution toward failure.

Abstract

Geomaterials often exhibit progressive creep characterized by an initial decelerating phase, frequently followed by an extended period of approximately constant deformation rate, and ultimately an accelerating regime leading to catastrophic failure. Despite extensive research, the timing of rupture and its relationship to the different creep phases, particularly in natural systems, remain poorly constrained. Here, we compile creep data from laboratory experiments on rocks, composites, papers, and glasses, together with observations from field systems including landslides, rockfalls, and glaciers. We find that the duration of the early-stage creep, marked by the transition to the minimum (or quasi-stationary) deformation rate, correlates nearly linearly with the time to rupture over five orders of magnitude. This unified scaling highlights that the early-time dynamics reflect the full evolution toward failure, providing a simple and robust framework for forecasting rupture across laboratory and natural systems.