Cloud-Edge Collaborative Large Models for Robust Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces CAPE, a cloud-edge collaborative framework for photovoltaic power forecasting that enhances accuracy and robustness under weather variability while respecting latency constraints.

Contribution

It proposes a novel adaptive framework combining site-specific, edge, and cloud models with uncertainty screening and Lyapunov-guided routing for improved PV forecasting.

Findings

CAPE outperforms existing models in accuracy and robustness.

The routing strategy effectively balances model complexity and latency.

Experiments validate superior system efficiency and forecast quality.

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting in edge-enabled grids requires balancing forecasting accuracy, robustness under weather-driven distribution shifts, and strict latency constraints. Existing models work well under normal conditions but often struggle with rare ramp events and unexpected weather changes. Relying solely on cloud-based large models often leads to significant communication delays, which can hinder timely and efficient forecasting in practical grid environments. To address these issues, we propose a condition-adaptive cloud-edge collaborative framework *CAPE* for PV forecasting. *CAPE* consists of three main modules: a site-specific expert model for routine predictions, a lightweight edge-side model for enhanced local inference, and a cloud-based large retrieval model that provides relevant historical cases when needed. These modules are coordinated by a screening module that evaluates uncertainty, out-of-distribution risk, weather mutations, and model disagreement. Furthermore, we employ a Lyapunov-guided routing strategy to dynamically determine when to escalate inference to more powerful models under long-term system constraints. The final forecast is produced through adaptive fusion of the selected model outputs. Experiments on two real-world PV datasets demonstrate that *CAPE* achieves superior performance in terms of forecasting accuracy, robustness, routing quality, and system efficiency.