Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?

TL;DR

This paper uses innovation diffusion models to analyze the environmental impact of generative AI, suggesting that economic-driven product evolution may mitigate some environmental concerns, depending on dominant business models.

Contribution

It applies the classic A-U innovation diffusion model to forecast the environmental impact of GAI, highlighting the influence of business models on sustainability.

Findings

GAI's environmental impact may be less severe than predicted.

Product evolution driven by economic factors can reduce environmental harm.

The dominant business model influences GAI's sustainability trajectory.

Abstract

The rise of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) has led to alarming predictions about its environmental impact. However, these predictions often overlook the fact that the diffusion of innovation is accompanied by the evolution of products and the optimization of their performance, primarily for economic reasons. This can also reduce their environmental impact. By analyzing the GAI ecosystem using the classic A-U innovation diffusion model, we can forecast this industry's structure and how its environmental impact will evolve. While GAI will never be green, its impact may not be as problematic as is sometimes claimed. However, this depends on which business model becomes dominant.