Modeling Epistemic Uncertainty in Social Perception via Rashomon Set Agents

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multi-agent probabilistic modeling framework using LLMs to simulate how subjective social perceptions and uncertainties evolve among students in classroom settings, emphasizing local information and individual differences.

Contribution

It presents a novel LLM-driven multi-agent framework that models social perception dynamics with subjective graphs and structural perturbations, avoiding reliance on global information.

Findings

Reproduces collective social dynamics consistent with real classrooms

Demonstrates how local interactions propagate epistemic uncertainty

Shows the impact of social-anxiety on perception accuracy

Abstract

We present an LLM-driven multi-agent probabilistic modeling framework that demonstrates how differences in students' subjective social perceptions arise and evolve in real-world classroom settings, under constraints from an observed social network and limited questionnaire data. When social information is incomplete and the accuracy of perception differs between students, they can form different views of the same group structure from local cues they can access. Repeated peer communication and belief updates can gradually change these views and, over time, lead to stable group-level differences. To avoid assuming a global "god's-eye view," we assign each student an individualized subjective graph that shows which social ties they can perceive and how far information is reachable from their perspective. All judgments and interactions are restricted to this subjective graph: agents use retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to access only local information and then form evaluations of peers' competence and social standing. We also add structural perturbations related to social-anxiety to represent consistent individual differences in the accuracy of social perception. During peer exchanges, agents share narrative assessments of classmates' academic performance and social position with uncertainty tags, and update beliefs probabilistically using LLM-based trust scores. Using the time series of six real exam scores as an exogenous reference, we run multi-step simulations to examine how epistemic uncertainty spreads through local interactions. Experiments show that, without relying on global information, the framework reproduces several collective dynamics consistent with real-world educational settings. The code is released at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Rashomonomon-0126.