Learning Dynamic Belief Graphs for Theory-of-mind Reasoning

TL;DR

This paper presents a structured belief graph model for enhancing Theory-of-Mind reasoning in LLMs, enabling dynamic belief inference and decision-making in uncertain, high-stakes environments.

Contribution

It introduces a novel probabilistic graphical model approach that captures evolving mental states and belief dependencies over time, improving reasoning in dynamic contexts.

Findings

Significantly improves action prediction accuracy in disaster datasets.

Recovers interpretable belief trajectories aligned with human reasoning.

Enhances LLMs with dynamic ToM capabilities in high-uncertainty scenarios.

Abstract

Theory of Mind (ToM) reasoning with Large Language Models (LLMs) requires inferring how people's implicit, evolving beliefs shape what they seek and how they act under uncertainty -- especially in high-stakes settings such as disaster response, emergency medicine, and human-in-the-loop autonomy. Prior approaches either prompt LLMs directly or use latent-state models that treat beliefs as static and independent, often producing incoherent mental models over time and weak reasoning in dynamic contexts. We introduce a structured cognitive trajectory model for LLM-based ToM that represents mental state as a dynamic belief graph, jointly inferring latent beliefs, learning their time-varying dependencies, and linking belief evolution to information seeking and decisions. Our model contributes (i) a novel projection from textualized probabilistic statements to consistent probabilistic graphical model updates, (ii) an energy-based factor graph representation of belief interdependencies, and (iii) an ELBO-based objective that captures belief accumulation and delayed decisions. Across multiple real-world disaster evacuation datasets, our model significantly improves action prediction and recovers interpretable belief trajectories consistent with human reasoning, providing a principled module for augmenting LLMs with ToM in high-uncertainty environment. https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ICML_submission-6373/