The Uncertain Policy Price of Scaling Direct Air Capture

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the uncertainties and policy implications of scaling direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), revealing the economic and policy conditions needed for gigaton-scale CO2 removal by mid-century.

Contribution

It provides the first uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of DACCS deployment, highlighting the economic thresholds and policy support necessary for large-scale implementation.

Findings

Most scenarios show modest DACCS uptake; a small probability of gigaton-scale removal exists.

Achieving gigaton removal requires sustained subsidies of 200-330 USD/tCO2 over decades.

Public support of 900-3000 billion USD is needed, contingent on strong emission reduction policies.

Abstract

Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is a promising CO2 removal technology, but its deployment at scale remains speculative. Yet, its technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties have often been overlooked in mitigation pathways. This paper conducts the first uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of DACCS on technological, market, financial and public support drivers, using a detailed-process Integrated Assessment Model and newly developed sensitivity algorithms. We find that DACCS deployment exhibits a fat-tailed distribution: most scenarios show modest technology uptake, but there is a small but non-zero probability (4-6%) of achieving gigaton-scale removals by mid-century. Scaling DACCS to gigaton levels requires subsidies that always exceed 200-330 USD/tCO2 and are sustained for decades, resulting in a public support programme of 900-3000 USD Billions. Such an effort pays back by mid-century, but only if accompanied by strong emission reduction policies. These findings highlight the critical role of climate policies in enabling a robust and economically sustainable CO2 removal strategy.