Adaptive Regime-Aware Stock Price Prediction Using Autoencoder-Gated Dual Node Transformers with Reinforcement Learning Control

TL;DR

This paper presents an adaptive stock prediction system that detects market regimes using autoencoders and reinforcement learning, improving accuracy during volatile periods.

Contribution

It introduces a novel framework combining autoencoder-based regime detection, dual transformer pathways, and reinforcement learning for adaptive stock prediction.

Findings

Achieves 0.59% MAPE on 20 S&P 500 stocks, outperforming baseline models.

Maintains robust performance during high-volatility periods with MAPE below 0.85%.

Each component significantly improves prediction accuracy, as shown by ablation studies.

Abstract

Stock markets exhibit regime-dependent behavior where prediction models optimized for stable conditions often fail during volatile periods. Existing approaches typically treat all market states uniformly or require manual regime labeling, which is expensive and quickly becomes stale as market dynamics evolve. This paper introduces an adaptive prediction framework that adaptively identifies deviations from normal market conditions and routes data through specialized prediction pathways. The architecture consists of three components: (1) an autoencoder trained on normal market conditions that identifies anomalous regimes through reconstruction error, (2) dual node transformer networks specialized for stable and event-driven market conditions respectively, and (3) a Soft Actor-Critic reinforcement learning controller that adaptively tunes the regime detection threshold and pathway blending weights based on prediction performance feedback. The reinforcement learning component enables the system to learn adaptive regime boundaries, defining anomalies as market states where standard prediction approaches fail. Experiments on 20 S&P 500 stocks spanning 1982 to 2025 demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves 0.68% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for one-day predictions without the reinforcement controller and 0.59% MAPE with the full adaptive system, compared to 0.80% for the baseline integrated node transformer. Directional accuracy reaches 72% with the complete framework. The system maintains robust performance during high-volatility periods, with MAPE below 0.85% when baseline models exceed 1.5%. Ablation studies confirm that each component contributes meaningfully: autoencoder routing accounts for 36% relative MAPE degradation upon removal, followed by the SAC controller at 15% and the dual-path architecture at 7%.