Integrating Inductive Biases in Transformers via Distillation for Financial Time Series Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces TIPS, a distillation framework that integrates multiple inductive biases into Transformers, significantly improving financial time series forecasting performance across diverse markets by leveraging regime-dependent bias utilization.

Contribution

The paper presents TIPS, a novel knowledge distillation method that synthesizes causality, locality, and periodicity biases into a single Transformer for robust financial forecasting.

Findings

TIPS outperforms ensemble baselines by up to 55% in annual return.

TIPS achieves 9% higher Sharpe ratio and 16% higher Calmar ratio.

TIPS generates statistically significant excess returns and aligns with classical models during profitable regimes.

Abstract

Transformer-based models have been widely adopted for time-series forecasting due to their high representational capacity and architectural flexibility. However, many Transformer variants implicitly assume stationarity and stable temporal dynamics -- assumptions routinely violated in financial markets characterized by regime shifts and non-stationarity. Empirically, state-of-the-art time-series Transformers often underperform even vanilla Transformers on financial tasks, while simpler architectures with distinct inductive biases, such as CNNs and RNNs, can achieve stronger performance with substantially lower complexity. At the same time, no single inductive bias dominates across markets or regimes, suggesting that robust financial forecasting requires integrating complementary temporal priors. We propose TIPS (Transformer with Inductive Prior Synthesis), a knowledge distillation framework that synthesizes diverse inductive biases -- causality, locality, and periodicity -- within a unified Transformer. TIPS trains bias-specialized Transformer teachers via attention masking, then distills their knowledge into a single student model with regime-dependent alignment across inductive biases. Across four major equity markets, TIPS achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming strong ensemble baselines by 55%, 9%, and 16% in annual return, Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio, while requiring only 38% of the inference-time computation. Further analyses show that TIPS generates statistically significant excess returns beyond both vanilla Transformers and its teacher ensembles, and exhibits regime-dependent behavioral alignment with classical architectures during their profitable periods. These results highlight the importance of regime-dependent inductive bias utilization for robust generalization in non-stationary financial time series.