Age-dependent distribution of officially reported cases of vector-borne infections

TL;DR

This study introduces a new method to analyze age-distribution patterns of vector-borne disease cases, revealing consistent patterns for Aedes-transmitted infections across regions and outbreak sizes, driven by ecological interactions.

Contribution

A novel approach to transform raw case data into age-dependent distributions and analyze their ecological determinants across multiple vector-borne diseases.

Findings

Age-distribution of Aedes-related infections is consistent across regions and outbreak sizes.

Distribution patterns for other vector-borne diseases vary significantly.

Age-distribution ratios are mainly influenced by vector-host ecological interactions.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To propose a new approach to analyze the age-distribution of reported cases for vector-transmitted infections. METHODS: Using officially reported number of cases of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, malaria and leishmaniasis for distinct geographical areas, in different periods. Data were treated in special but well-known procedure, transforming the raw data into a density age-dependent distribution and fitting a special continuous function to it. RESULTS: We found that the proportion of age-dependent cases with respect to the total number of cases in a given year (or any transmission season) is probably determined by the ecological interactions between vectors and hosts. The age-distribution of the proportion of cases for the three Aedes-related infections are essentially the same independently of the magnitude of the outbreak and the geographical region considered. On the other hand, for the infections transmitted by other vectors, the age-distributions of the proportion of cases are entirely different. CONCLUSIONS: During specific outbreaks, the ratio between the age distribution of the proportion of officially reported cases and the total number of cases for Aedes transmitted infections such as dengue, chikungunya and zika is independent of the size of the outbreak, the size of the studied population, the period when the outbreak occurs; and the geographical region considered. Our results also suggest that the age-distribution of cases is mainly due to the interaction between vectors and their hosts.