GARCH-FIS: A Hybrid Forecasting Model with Dynamic Volatility-Driven Parameter Adaptation

TL;DR

The GARCH-FIS hybrid model dynamically adapts fuzzy inference parameters based on volatility estimates for improved multi-step financial time series forecasting, outperforming traditional models in accuracy and stability.

Contribution

It introduces a novel dynamic parameter adaptation mechanism for fuzzy inference in a hybrid GARCH-FIS model, enhancing multi-step forecasting of volatile financial data.

Findings

Outperforms benchmark models like SVR, LSTM, and ARIMA-GARCH in accuracy.

Effectively adapts to market volatility regimes, improving robustness.

Reduces error accumulation in extended recursive forecasts.

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel hybrid model, termed GARCH-FIS, for recursive rolling multi-step forecasting of financial time series. It integrates a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to jointly address nonlinear dynamics and time-varying volatility. The core innovation is a dynamic parameter adaptation mechanism for the FIS, specifically activated within the multi-step forecasting cycle. In this process, the conditional volatility estimated by a rolling window GARCH model is continuously translated into a price volatility measure. At each forecasting step, this measure, alongside the updated mean of the sliding window data -- which now incorporates the most recent predicted price -- jointly determines the parameters of the FIS membership functions for the next prediction. Consequently, the granularity of the fuzzy inference adapts as the forecast horizon extends: membership functions are automatically widened during high-volatility market regimes to bolster robustness and narrowed during stable periods to enhance precision. This constitutes a fundamental advancement over a static one-step-ahead prediction setup. Furthermore, the model's fuzzy rule base is automatically constructed from data using the Wang-Mendel method, promoting interpretability and adaptability. Empirical evaluation, focused exclusively on multi-step forecasting performance across ten diverse financial assets, demonstrates that the proposed GARCH-FIS model significantly outperforms benchmark models -- including Support Vector Regression(SVR), Long Short-Term Memory networks(LSTM), and an ARIMA-GARCH econometric model -- in terms of predictive accuracy and stability, while effectively mitigating error accumulation in extended recursive forecasts.