Spatially Varying Coefficient Mallows Model Averaging

TL;DR

This paper introduces a spatially varying coefficient model averaging method using a Mallows-type criterion, improving prediction accuracy and robustness in spatial data analysis, especially under model misspecification.

Contribution

It develops a novel spatial model averaging approach with theoretical guarantees and demonstrates superior empirical performance over existing methods.

Findings

Achieves asymptotic optimality under misspecified models.

Concentrates weights on quasi-correct models when present.

Outperforms alternatives in predictive accuracy and robustness.

Abstract

Model averaging, as an appealing ensemble technique, strategically integrates all valuable information from candidate models to construct fast and accurate prediction. Despite of having been widely practiced in many fields such as cross-sectional data, censored data and longitudinal data, its application to spatial data characterized by inherent spatial heterogeneity remains surprisingly limited. To mitigate risk of model misspecification and enhance the flexibility of prediction, we propose a combined estimator constructed by computing the weighted average of estimators derived from a set of spatially varying coefficient candidate models. Herein, the model weights are determined via a Mallows-type criterion, which dynamically calibrates the relative importance of individual candidate models in the ensemble. Theoretically, we establish desirable asymptotic properties under two practical scenarios. First, in the case where all candidate models are misspecified, the proposed model averaging estimator attains asymptotic optimality in the sense that it minimizes the squared error loss function asymptotically. Second, when the candidate model set encompasses at least one quasi-correct model, the weights assigned by the Mallows-type criterion asymptotically concentrate on the quasi-correct models, and the resulting model averaging estimator converges in probability to the true conditional mean. Both simulation studies and a real-world empirical example demonstrate that the proposed method generally outperforms alternative comparative approaches in terms of predictive accuracy and robustness.