The ARC of Progress towards AGI: A Living Survey of Abstraction and Reasoning

TL;DR

This survey analyzes 82 approaches to the ARC-AGI benchmark, revealing consistent performance drops across versions and highlighting the importance of test-time adaptation, while emphasizing the ongoing challenges in compositional reasoning for achieving AGI.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive cross-generation analysis of ARC-AGI approaches, tracking progress, costs, and limitations across multiple benchmark versions and competitions.

Findings

Performance drops 2-3x across benchmark versions

Cost reduced 390x in one year, mainly due to test-time efficiency

Test-time adaptation is crucial for success

Abstract

The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC-AGI) has become a key benchmark for fluid intelligence in AI. This survey presents the first cross-generation analysis of 82 approaches across three benchmark versions and the ARC Prize 2024-2025 competitions. Our central finding is that performance degradation across versions is consistent across all paradigms: program synthesis, neuro-symbolic, and neural approaches all exhibit 2-3x drops from ARC-AGI-1 to ARC-AGI-2, indicating fundamental limitations in compositional generalization. While systems now reach 93.0% on ARC-AGI-1 (Opus 4.6), performance falls to 68.8% on ARC-AGI-2 and 13% on ARC-AGI-3, as humans maintain near-perfect accuracy across all versions. Cost fell 390x in one year (o3's $4,500/task to GPT-5.2's $12/task), although this largely reflects reduced test-time parallelism. Trillion-scale models vary widely in score and cost, while Kaggle-constrained entries (660M-8B) achieve competitive results, aligning with Chollet's thesis that intelligence is skill-acquisition efficiency. Test-time adaptation and refinement loops emerge as critical success factors, while compositional reasoning and interactive learning remain unsolved. ARC Prize 2025 winners needed hundreds of thousands of synthetic examples to reach 24% on ARC-AGI-2, confirming that reasoning remains knowledge-bound. This first release of the ARC-AGI Living Survey captures the field as of February 2026, with updates at https://nimi-ai.com/arc-survey/