A mapping-based projection of detailed kinetics uncertainty onto reduced manifolds

TL;DR

This paper introduces a two-step framework to efficiently propagate chemical kinetics uncertainties onto reduced combustion models, enabling detailed uncertainty analysis in complex reacting flow simulations.

Contribution

A novel two-step method for mapping detailed chemical kinetics uncertainty onto reduced models, reducing computational costs in reacting flow simulations.

Findings

Uncertainty maps reveal spatial variations in reaction times and equilibrium times.

Largest variability occurs in low-to-intermediate temperature regimes.

Method enables scalable, spatially resolved uncertainty quantification in practical simulations.

Abstract

Propagating uncertainties introduced by chemical reaction rate parameters to high-fidelity numerical simulations of complex combustion devices is necessary to ascertain impact on computational predictions. However, the high cost of detailed computations combined with the need to conduct multiple simulations to propagate uncertainty makes such an estimation computationally challenging. In order to reduce the computational cost, a two-step framework for quantifying uncertainty introduced by detailed chemical kinetics model parameters using reduced chemistry models is developed here. First, reduced-manifold states are uniquely reconstructed in full-composition space by following trajectories at an unburnt mixing state and integrating forward to a prescribed progress variable constraint. Second, parametric uncertainty is propagated by sampling perturbed rate coefficients from mechanism covariance matrices and integrating each realization to the target state, yielding uncertainty maps for reduced-space quantities. The method is applied in two configurations: a subsonic multi-tube combustor with interacting jet flames and recirculation, and a three-dimensional reacting high-speed flowpath. Uncertainty-instrumented estimated are reported for a trajectory time (time for the reconstructed unreacted mixture to reach the local target state) and for the time to equilibrium, revealing order-of-magnitude spatial variations driven by mixing, stratification, and residence-time effects. The largest relative variability occurs in low-to-intermediate temperature regimes associated with induction and the onset of heat release, where branching-related chemistry amplifies sensitivity, particularly away from stoichiometric conditions. The method provides a scalable route to spatially resolved, physically interpretable chemistry-UQ for practical reacting-flow simulations.