Social Proof is in the Pudding: The (Non)-Impact of Social Proof on Software Downloads

TL;DR

This study investigates whether social proof, such as stars and download counts, influences open-source software adoption, finding no significant effect on downloads or developer engagement in two field experiments.

Contribution

The paper provides empirical evidence that social proof metrics do not significantly impact software downloads or activity, challenging assumptions about their influence in open-source communities.

Findings

No impact of purchased 'stars' on downloads or engagement

Manipulating download counts does not affect subsequent downloads

Social proof metrics may not influence developer behavior as assumed

Abstract

Open-source software is widely used in commercial applications. Pair that with the fact that when choosing open-source software for a new problem, developers often use social proof as a cue. These two facts raise concerns that bad actors can game social proof metrics to induce the use of malign software. We study the question using two field experiments. On the largest developer platform, GitHub, we buy 'stars' for a random set of GitHub repositories of new Python packages and estimate their impact on package downloads and broader repository activity. We find no discernible impact on downloads, nor on forks, pull requests, issues, or other measures of developer engagement. In another field experiment, we manipulate the number of human downloads for Python packages. Again, we find no detectable effect on subsequent downloads or on any measure of repository activity.