Mapping the long-term trajectories of political violence in Africa

TL;DR

This study introduces a spatially explicit longitudinal analysis of political violence in Africa, revealing six recurrent conflict patterns and spatial interdependencies over nearly three decades.

Contribution

It develops a novel framework combining sequence analysis and clustering to map long-term violence trajectories and spatial linkages in African conflicts.

Findings

Identifies six distinct conflict trajectories.

Reveals spatial interdependence in border regions.

Highlights temporal and geographic patterns of violence.

Abstract

Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a spatially explicit longitudinal sequence analysis to address this gap. Using event-level data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset covering Africa from 1997 to 2024, we classify locations according to the intensity and spatial concentration of violence, tracing how these states evolve into distinct conflict trajectories. Applying optimal matching and clustering techniques, we identify six recurrent patterns ranging from short-lived, localized outbreaks to protracted high-intensity conflicts. We further assess how these trajectories align across neighboring areas, revealing evidence of spatial interdependence, particularly in border regions. By highlighting the temporal rhythms and geographic linkages of political violence, the study advances conflict research beyond isolated transitions and provides a framework for understanding the life cycles of violence.