Estimating Residential Displacement in the Central Puget Sound Region using Household Survey Data

TL;DR

This study develops a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to estimate residential displacement in the Central Puget Sound Region using household survey data, revealing spatial and temporal displacement patterns.

Contribution

It introduces a novel methodology combining household surveys and Bayesian modeling to estimate displacement, validated across multiple data sources.

Findings

Displacement rates vary east-west and north-south within the region.

A temporary decrease in displacement occurred during 2020-2021.

Estimates are publicly available for policymakers and researchers.

Abstract

Housing instability is a persistent challenge faced by households in cities across the United States. In worst-case scenarios, households are displaced from their residences and forced to start anew. In an effort to mitigate the harms of residential displacement, local policymakers have an interest in monitoring residential displacement within their communities. In this work, we propose a new strategy to estimate sub-county residential displacement within the Central Puget Sound Region using data from three household survey programs. We first estimate residential displacement between 2016-2023 from a local household travel survey using a Bayesian spatiotemporal model, and poststratify with data from the American Community Survey. We then benchmark these estimates to the American Housing Survey to ensure consistency across sources. The results reveal east-west and north-south differences in residential displacement rates within the region as well as a temporary moderation of displacement in the 2020-2021 cohort of movers. Our estimates are publicly available for interested stakeholders to further study trends in residential displacement in the Central Puget Sound Region, and our methodology is transportable to other jurisdictions with similar data contexts.