The SIS Competition Model for Conflicting Rumors

TL;DR

This paper introduces an SIS competition model for conflicting rumors, revealing a coexistence mechanism where opposing rumors can mutually facilitate each other's spread and highlighting conditions under which one rumor can dominate or be eliminated.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel SIS competition model that analytically characterizes coexistence and dominance thresholds for conflicting rumors, incorporating opinion dynamics and infection rate effects.

Findings

Coexistence of conflicting rumors can occur due to a novel mechanism.

Lower infection rates can paradoxically promote rumor spread.

A critical initial share threshold determines rumor dominance or elimination.

Abstract

We propose an SIS competition model describing the propagation of conflicting rumors, such as fake news and its corrections. This simple model captures the interaction between rumor propagation and opinion dynamics, where rumors drive opinion changes and, conversely, individuals' opinions determine the infection rates of rumors. We analytically derive all steady states and their stability. These results uncover a novel coexistence mechanism. This coexistence corresponds to a scenario where belief in one rumor (e.g., fake news) paradoxically aids the spread of the opposing rumor (e.g., corrective information). Due to this mechanism, a nontrivial but realistic phenomenon occurs where a lower infection rate actually enhances the spread of a rumor. Furthermore, although the model does not explicitly incorporate majority conformity, a phenomenon where the majority gains an advantage emerges spontaneously. Consequently, even if one rumor has a higher infection rate, it may be eliminated by the other if its initial share fails to exceed a critical threshold. We analytically derive this threshold using the singular perturbation method.