Observationally Informed Adaptive Causal Experimental Design

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new experimental design paradigm that leverages observational data to efficiently estimate causal effects, reducing resource waste and improving accuracy in causal inference.

Contribution

It proposes Active Residual Learning and the R-Design framework, providing theoretical guarantees and a practical criterion for more efficient causal experiment design.

Findings

R-Design outperforms baselines on synthetic benchmarks

Estimating residuals converges faster than full outcome reconstruction

The approach reduces experimental resource requirements

Abstract

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent the gold standard for causal inference yet remain a scarce resource. While large-scale observational data is often available, it is utilized only for retrospective fusion, and remains discarded in prospective trial design due to bias concerns. We argue this "tabula rasa" data acquisition strategy is fundamentally inefficient. In this work, we propose Active Residual Learning, a new paradigm that leverages the observational model as a foundational prior. This approach shifts the experimental focus from learning target causal quantities from scratch to efficiently estimating the residuals required to correct observational bias. To operationalize this, we introduce the R-Design framework. Theoretically, we establish two key advantages: (1) a structural efficiency gap, proving that estimating smooth residual contrasts admits strictly faster convergence rates than reconstructing full outcomes; and (2) information efficiency, where we quantify the redundancy in standard parameter-based acquisition (e.g., BALD), demonstrating that such baselines waste budget on task-irrelevant nuisance uncertainty. We propose R-EPIG (Residual Expected Predictive Information Gain), a unified criterion that directly targets the causal estimand, minimizing residual uncertainty for estimation or clarifying decision boundaries for policy. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks demonstrate that R-Design significantly outperforms baselines, confirming that repairing a biased model is far more efficient than learning one from scratch.