Near-surface Extreme Wind Events and Their Responses to Climate Forcings in a Hierarchy of Global Climate Models

TL;DR

This study analyzes how near-surface extreme winds respond to climate change across different climate models, highlighting the importance of model physics and boundary conditions in predicting regional wind extremes.

Contribution

It provides a systematic comparison of wind extreme responses in idealized and realistic climate model simulations, identifying key sources of uncertainty and robust patterns.

Findings

Extratropical wind extremes intensify with warming, linked to cyclones.

Tropical low-pressure systems show large model spread in responses.

Boundary conditions in models influence the uncertainty in wind extreme projections.

Abstract

Near-surface extreme winds profoundly affect human society, yet process-based understanding of their changes under climate forcings remains limited. This study systematically investigates the responses of high (HWE) and low (LWE) wind extremes (10-meter) to climate forcings using a hierarchy of climate model experiments from multiple general circulation models that participated in the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project. We analyze idealized atmosphere-only aquaplanet (Aqua) simulations and more realistic land-atmosphere (AMIP) simulations to identify robust responses to climate forcings and trace the sources of structural uncertainty. In Aqua simulations, tropical LWE changes exhibit large inter-model spread, which can be traced to dynamically distinct representations of low-pressure systems between models. In contrast, extratropical HWE intensify robustly with surface warming, linked to the strengthening of high-latitude extratropical cyclones. The AMIP simulations confirm the robust intensification of extratropical HWE. The more realistic boundary conditions in AMIP simulations act as a constraint, reducing inter-model spread in tropical zonal means compared to Aqua simulations. A comparison of uniform and patterned 4-K warming experiments suggests that the global magnitude of warming, rather than the specific warming pattern, dominates the large-scale responses of wind extremes. However, regional projections of extreme wind changes, especially over land, remain highly uncertain due to divergences in model physics. Case studies reveal that major disagreements in HWE changes can stem from fundamental differences in representing the type and seasonality of extreme-producing weather systems. Our results underscore that reducing uncertainty in regional wind projections requires constraining the physical representation of weather systems in climate models.