Predicting Gaia astrometry's ability to constrain the populations of circumbinary planets

TL;DR

Gaia's upcoming data releases are expected to significantly advance the understanding of circumbinary planets by providing new detections and refining population models, despite a lower-than-expected yield.

Contribution

This study provides updated yield estimates for Gaia's detection of circumbinary planets and analyzes how assumptions about the population affect Gaia's sensitivity and bias.

Findings

Estimated 10-100 detections in Gaia DR4.

Detection bias towards planets near the instability zone.

Potential to confirm or refute post-common-envelope binary planets.

Abstract

The coming data releases of Gaia are expected to result in an upheaval of exoplanet science, in particular for long period giant planets ($0.2 {\rm M_{J}} \leq M\leq25 {\rm M_{J}}$). One class of exoplanets which Gaia will help investigate is circumbinary planets. Using the current knowledge of the circumbinary exoplanet population as well as expectations for the Gaia sensitivity, we investigate the impact Gaia will have on our understanding of circumbinary planets. We compare our results to a pre-launch estimate, the main differences arising from a better understanding of the circumbinary planet population, which result in a lower expected yield than previously predicted, though still significant compared to the known population. We make a rough yield estimate, with conservative detection criteria and parameter-space cuts, predicting in the 10s - 100s of detections in Gaia DR4. More importantly, we show how the yield estimate varies strongly with different assumptions on the injected circumbinary population, showing Gaia's sensitivity to the mass and orbital period distribution of circumbinary planets. We find that Gaia circumbinary exoplanet detections will be biased towards planets closer to the instability zone surrounding the binary, due to the larger number of binaries on wider orbits and the limited timespan of Gaia. We also assess the impact Gaia will have on known circumbinary systems, one being that it may resolve the question of reliability of the claimed planets orbiting post-common-envelope binaries, with Gaia DR5 being sensitive to between 3 and 11 out of 32 such planet candidates.