Diversification of global food trade partners increased inequalities in the exposure to shock risks

TL;DR

This study analyzes how evolving global food trade networks from 1986 to 2022 have increased systemic vulnerabilities and inequalities, with some sectors becoming more resilient while others grow more fragile, especially affecting vulnerable regions.

Contribution

It introduces a dynamic multiplex network model of global food trade to quantify how structural changes impact systemic vulnerability over time.

Findings

Grain trade became more decentralized and resilient.

Animal and Vegetable Fats trade grew more centralized and fragile.

Vulnerable regions like Africa and Southern Asia face increased risks.

Abstract

Recent global food trade disruptions have evidenced how local shocks can cascade into global security threats. While the capacity of food systems to absorb spillovers depends heavily on its underlying trade networks, few studies quantify how their temporal evolution reshapes systemic vulnerability over time. Here, we evaluate how changes in global connectivity from 1986 to 2022 reshaped responses to production shocks. Using FAO data, we built yearly multiplex representations of the food trade system and quantified robustness through a stochastic shock-propagation model with dynamic export bans. We find that while increasing globalization intensified inter-dependencies and amplified cascades, robustness trends remain heterogeneous. Grain trade has become more decentralized and resilient to targeted shocks; conversely, Animal and Vegetable Fats exhibit growing centralization and fragility around key exporters like Indonesia and Malaysia. These structural transformations caused diverging shifts in systemic vulnerability, disproportionately threatening already vulnerable regions such as Africa and Southern Asia.