Behavioral Outcomes of Human Cognitive Security within an Integrative Modeling Framework

TL;DR

This paper introduces an integrative modeling framework linking information-based threats to observable human behavioral outcomes, enhancing understanding of cognitive security and informing future empirical research.

Contribution

It develops a novel framework combining Bayesian inference and affective decision-making to explain human responses to information threats, validated by computational simulations.

Findings

Explains cognitive heuristics and the illusory truth effect (R2=0.86)

Models veracity discernment, task actions, and sharing behavior

Provides empirically grounded measures for cognitive security

Abstract

Human decision-making under uncertainty faces growing challenges from information-based threats that pose risks to human cognitive processes and behavior. Although their potential harm is widely acknowledged, there remains no well-defined construct for characterizing the degree to which information-based threats influence changes in human judgments and decision-making, impeding theoretical advancement, measurement, and effective countermeasure development. Here, we introduce a human cognitive security construct focused on linking information-based threats to observable outcomes to bridge field-level definitions with operational measures by drawing from core mechanisms related to information processing and decision-making. To connect the information environment to behavior, we develop an integrative modeling framework that unifies Bayesian inference with affect-modulated decision valuation, capturing how cognitive resource allocation and affective valuation shape three core behavioral outcomes: veracity discernment, task-oriented actions, and information sharing. Through computational simulations, we demonstrate that this framework explains canonical phenomena, including cognitive heuristics, the illusory truth effect (R2=0.86, validated against empirical data), and incongruent veracity discernment and sharing behavior. We propose empirically grounded behavioral outcome measures of cognitive security to guide future empirical examinations. Finally, we outline how environment-specific elements, characterized by data availability and ecological constraints, affect individuals' cognitive security and identify future research directions.