Self-Anchoring Calibration Drift in Large Language Models: How Multi-Turn Conversations Reshape Model Confidence

TL;DR

This study investigates how large language models' confidence levels change during multi-turn conversations, revealing complex, model-specific calibration drift patterns that challenge previous assumptions about model confidence stability.

Contribution

The paper introduces the concept of Self-Anchoring Calibration Drift (SACD) and provides an empirical analysis of its effects across multiple state-of-the-art LLMs in various domains.

Findings

Claude Sonnet 4.6 shows decreased confidence with self-anchoring.

GPT-5.2 exhibits increased confidence and calibration error escalation.

Gemini 3.1 Pro's calibration error remains stable under self-anchoring.

Abstract

We introduce Self-Anchoring Calibration Drift (SACD), a hypothesized tendency for large language models (LLMs) to show systematic changes in expressed confidence when building iteratively on their own prior outputs across multi-turn conversations. We report an empirical study comparing three frontier models -- Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and GPT-5.2 -- across 150 questions spanning factual, technical, and open-ended domains, using three conditions: single-turn baseline (A), multi-turn self-anchoring (B), and independent repetition control (C). Results reveal a complex, model-heterogeneous pattern that partially diverges from pre-registered hypotheses. Claude Sonnet 4.6 exhibited significant decreasing confidence under self-anchoring (mean CDS = -0.032, t(14) = -2.43, p = .029, d = -0.627), while also showing significant calibration error drift (F(4,56) = 22.77, p < .001, eta^2 = .791). GPT-5.2 showed the opposite pattern in open-ended domains (mean CDS = +0.026) with significant ECE escalation by Turn 5. Gemini 3.1 Pro showed no significant CDS (t(14) = 0.38, p = .710), but its Condition C data reveals a striking ECE pattern: without self-anchoring, Gemini's calibration error drops from .327 to near zero across repetitions, whereas self-anchoring holds ECE flat at approximately .333 -- indicating that SACD can manifest as suppression of natural calibration improvement rather than ac