A New Window into the Baryon Cycle at Cosmic Noon with Line Intensity Mapping: Forecasts for auto- and cross-correlations in [CII]-158$\mu$m, HI 21 cm, CO$_{J+1\rightarrow J}$, and H$\alpha$ galaxies

TL;DR

This paper forecasts the potential of line intensity mapping to study the baryon cycle at cosmic noon by analyzing auto- and cross-correlations of multiple tracers like [CII], HI, CO, and Hα, using simulations and formalism tailored for upcoming surveys.

Contribution

It introduces a simulation-based forecasting framework for detecting and analyzing auto- and cross-power spectra of multiple baryonic tracers at redshifts 0.5-1.7, incorporating detailed modeling and noise formalism.

Findings

Galaxy cross-correlations will be the main discovery channel.

Auto-spectra for CO and HI 21cm detectable at modest S/N.

Cross-correlations with Euclid will be significantly more sensitive, constraining models at high significance.

Abstract

Across the peak of cosmic star formation at $z\sim1-2$, inflow, processing, and feedback drive rapid changes in the spatial distribution and chemical composition of baryons in galaxies and surrounding reservoirs; this baryon cycle can be tomographically mapped by line intensity mapping (LIM) of atomic hydrogen, ionized carbon, and carbon monoxide. We present a simulation-based forecasting framework for detecting auto- and cross-power spectra between spectroscopic surveys of four such tracers at $z\sim0.5-1.7$ mapping the same deep field - TIM, EoRSpec/FYST, MeerKAT, & Euclid. We forward-model 3-D distributions for these tracers from magnetohydrodynamic simulations, directly capturing the two-halo, one-halo, and shot statistics without relying on analytical decompositions. We further detail a signal-to-noise formalism, tailored to LIM surveys with highly anisotropic geometries and Fourier-space coverage. We demonstrate that galaxy cross-correlations will be the dominant discovery channel for current-generation surveys. These instruments will detect the auto-spectra for CO and HI 21 cm and the CO $\times$ 21 cm cross-spectrum at modest S/N $\sim 1-10$, while placing upper limits on the [CII]-158$\mu$m signals. [CII], CO, and HI LIM will be $\sim3-30\times$ ($0.5-1.5$ dex) more sensitive to cross-correlation with the Euclid survey, however, than their respective auto-correlations, constraining all three models of line emission at high significance (S/N $\sim 10-40$) within this decade. Finally, we formulate a staged instrumental trajectory with planned or reasonable improvements, including the as-proposed SKA-Mid. We forecast advancing the per-$k$-mode sensitivities of each auto-, galaxy-line, and line-line spectrum by several orders of magnitude, enabling new percent- and sub-percent level constraints on cosmology and the redshift evolution of star formation and the baryon cycle.