Constraining the Lifespan of Intelligent Technological Civilization in the Galaxy

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how the absence of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations constrains their possible lifespan, suggesting that intelligent civilizations in the galaxy are likely short-lived, especially if they are common.

Contribution

It provides upper bounds on the lifespan of technological civilizations based on the Fermi paradox and current observational constraints.

Findings

Civilizations likely have lifespans less than 5,000 years under optimistic assumptions.

The lack of detected signals suggests civilizations are short-lived or rare.

Current light cone observations do not support long-lived, detectable civilizations.

Abstract

In this work, we explore constraints on the emergence and longevity of technologically intelligent civilizations in our Galaxy, considering the Fermi paradox. We argue that under optimistic assumptions about the probability of life and intelligence emerging on Earth-like planets, the absence of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations imposes limits on their lifespan. Our analysis suggests that if intelligent life is common, technological civilizations must be relatively short-lived, with lifetimes constrained to $\lesssim 5\times10^3$ years under our most optimistic scenario. Considering electromagnetic communication, we note that our current light cone encompasses the entire Galactic history over the past $\sim 10^5$ years, making the lack of detected signals particularly puzzling for long-lived civilizations. We emphasize that these results should be interpreted as upper bounds derived from the Fermi paradox, not as predictions of actual lifespans.