Quantum Attacks Targeting Nuclear Power Plants: Threat Analysis, Defense and Mitigation Strategies
Yaser Baseri, Edward Waller

TL;DR
This paper analyzes the quantum threat to nuclear power plants' cybersecurity, demonstrating attack strategies, risks, and proposing a comprehensive migration to quantum-resistant cryptography to safeguard critical infrastructure.
Contribution
It introduces a forensics-first framework for quantum resilience in nuclear facilities and details attack methodologies, risk assessments, and mitigation strategies aligned with industry standards.
Findings
High success probabilities (up to 78%) for quantum attacks on nuclear facilities.
Demonstrated multi-phase attack scenarios compromising safety and forensic integrity.
Validated phased migration strategies to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC).
Abstract
The advent of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) presents a fundamental and existential threat to the forensic integrity and operational safety of Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and Operational Technology (OT) in critical infrastructure. This paper introduces a novel, forensics-first framework for achieving quantum resilience in high-consequence environments, with a specific focus on nuclear power plants. We systematically analyze the quantum threat landscape across the Purdue architecture (L0-L5), detailing how Harvest-Now, Decrypt-Later (HNDL) campaigns, enabled by algorithms like Shor's, can retroactively compromise cryptographic foundations, undermine evidence admissibility, and facilitate sophisticated sabotage. Through two detailed case studies, \textsc{Quantum~Scar} and \textsc{Quantum~Dawn}, we demonstrate multi-phase attack methodologies where state-level…
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Taxonomy
TopicsSmart Grid Security and Resilience · Physical Unclonable Functions (PUFs) and Hardware Security · Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
