Apophis source population and Earth encounter frequency of Apophis-like bodies

TL;DR

This study analyzes the source and encounter frequency of Apophis-like near-Earth objects, revealing their persistent presence, encounter probabilities, and impact risks over millions of years.

Contribution

It provides a detailed simulation of Apophis-like bodies' orbital dynamics, source populations, and long-term impact probabilities, highlighting their persistent nature in near-Earth space.

Findings

Approximately 610 LL-like NEOs from Flora are similar to Apophis.

Encounter probability for Apophis-like bodies is about 1 in 430,000 years.

There is a 19% chance of Earth impact for Apophis-like objects over 30 million years.

Abstract

We provide context for Apophis' 2029 Earth passage by analyzing its possible source populations, in particular, the Flora family, which has a similar composition, corresponding to LL chondrite meteorites. Out of ${\sim}3380$ NEOs larger or equal than Apophis (${\ge}420\,{\rm m}$), $610\pm 140$ are LL-like NEOs from Flora. Their mean encounter probability is $p = 86\times 10^{-18}\,{\rm km}^{-2}\,{\rm y}^{-1}$, corresponding to once per 13000 y frequency of encounters closer than 38000 km. However, this does not apply to Apophis alone, for which the specific encounter probability is higher, $p' = 1603\times 10^{-18}\,{\rm km}^{-2}\,{\rm y}^{-1}$, but the frequency is lower, only once per 430000 y, when we consider it as a single object. Our simulation of the Flora family over $\sim$1 billion years indicates that Apophis-like bodies have orbits that are particularly persistent in near-Earth space. The temporal distribution of encounter probabilities exhibits peaks (up to ${>}10^4$ in the same units) and the specific value for Apophis is not unusual (occurring ${\sim}70\%$ of time). In other words, there is always at least one Apophis-like body among NEOs. We find that such persistence also creates favorable opportunities for temporary capture as Earth coorbitals. Apophis-like bodies are ultimately removed from the inner solar system by approaching the Sun or by impact into one of the terrestrial planets, where the relative split between these outcomes is $(45\pm 2)\,\%$ and $(50\pm 2)\,\%$. While our current knowledge of Apophis' orbit guarantees no threat from Apophis in the next few centuries, we cannot predict any specific outcome for Apophis in the coming thousands or millions of years. Evaluating this statistically over the long term, we find that objects in Apophis-like orbits have a $(19\pm 2)\,\%$ chance of Earth impact over their lifetime of ${\sim}30\,{\rm My}$.