Deep Learning Based Monthly Temperature Prediction for Jilin Province: A Multi Model Comparative Study 2000 2026

TL;DR

This study compares deep learning and traditional models for monthly temperature prediction in Jilin Province, demonstrating LSTM's superior accuracy and providing valuable insights for agricultural and ecological planning in the region.

Contribution

It introduces a multi-model comparison system tailored to Jilin's climate, highlighting LSTM's effectiveness for regional temperature prediction.

Findings

LSTM outperformed other models with RMSE=2.26°C

Jilin's temperature shows latitudinal distribution and seasonal periodicity

Stable temperature trends predicted for 2025-2026

Abstract

Jilin Province, a core commercial grain production base in China with a mid-temperate continental monsoon climate and significant temperature fluctuations, relies heavily on temperature for agricultural production and ecological security. Existing temperature prediction studies focus mostly on national/southeastern coastal regions, with few targeting Jilin's specific climatic characteristics, and most models fail to integrate local temperature's spatiotemporal differentiation and seasonal periodicity, limiting prediction accuracy. Using 1 km $\times$ 1 km monthly mean temperature raster data (2000--2024) of Jilin Province, we analyzed regional temperature's spatiotemporal variation and constructed a multi-model comparison system including four deep learning models (LSTM, GRU, BiLSTM, Transformer) and five traditional machine learning models (Ridge/Lasso Regression, SVR, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting). Model performance was evaluated via RMSE, MAE, and $R^2$. Results show Jilin's temperature has obvious latitudinal zonal distribution, significant warming trend, strong seasonal periodicity, and high temporal autocorrelation. The LSTM model achieved optimal performance (test set RMSE=2.26 $^\circ$C, MAE=1.83 $^\circ$C, $R^2$=0.9655), outperforming traditional models and Transformer. Predictions for 2025--2026 indicate stable seasonal temperature fluctuations with an annual mean of ~4.9 $^\circ$C. This study enriches mid-latitude cold region temperature prediction research, verifies LSTM's applicability for Jilin's monthly temperature prediction, and provides scientific support for agricultural planning, frost disaster warning, and extreme temperature risk prevention.