Do Generative Metrics Predict YOLO Performance? An Evaluation Across Models, Augmentation Ratios, and Dataset Complexity

TL;DR

This study evaluates whether standard generative metrics can predict the effectiveness of synthetic data augmentation for YOLOv11 object detection across diverse datasets and augmentation ratios, revealing regime-dependent correlations.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive controlled evaluation of synthetic augmentation's impact on YOLO performance and analyzes the predictive power of various generative metrics across different detection regimes.

Findings

Synthetic augmentation improves detection in challenging regimes

Many generative metrics do not reliably predict downstream performance

Correlation between metrics and performance is regime-dependent

Abstract

Synthetic images are increasingly used to augment object-detection training sets, but reliably evaluating a synthetic dataset before training remains difficult: standard global generative metrics (e.g., FID) often do not predict downstream detection mAP. We present a controlled evaluation of synthetic augmentation for YOLOv11 across three single-class detection regimes -- Traffic Signs (sparse/near-saturated), Cityscapes Pedestrian (dense/occlusion-heavy), and COCO PottedPlant (multi-instance/high-variability). We benchmark six GAN-, diffusion-, and hybrid-based generators over augmentation ratios from 10% to 150% of the real training split, and train YOLOv11 both from scratch and with COCO-pretrained initialization, evaluating on held-out real test splits (mAP@0.50:0.95). For each dataset-generator-augmentation configuration, we compute pre-training dataset metrics under a matched-size bootstrap protocol, including (i) global feature-space metrics in both Inception-v3 and DINOv2 embeddings and (ii) object-centric distribution distances over bounding-box statistics. Synthetic augmentation yields substantial gains in the more challenging regimes (up to +7.6% and +30.6% relative mAP in Pedestrian and PottedPlant, respectively) but is marginal in Traffic Signs and under pretrained fine-tuning. To separate metric signal from augmentation quantity, we report both raw and augmentation-controlled (residualized) correlations with multiple-testing correction, showing that metric-performance alignment is strongly regime-dependent and that many apparent raw associations weaken after controlling for augmentation level.