Learning from Biased and Costly Data Sources: Minimax-optimal Data Collection under a Budget

TL;DR

This paper introduces a minimax-optimal data collection strategy for estimating population and group means from multiple sources with different costs, optimizing the effective sample size within a fixed budget.

Contribution

It develops a novel sampling plan based on chi-squared divergence that maximizes effective sample size and proves its minimax optimality for population mean estimation.

Findings

The proposed sampling plan outperforms naive strategies.

The method achieves minimax optimal risk bounds.

Extensions to prediction problems are provided.

Abstract

Data collection is a critical component of modern statistical and machine learning pipelines, particularly when data must be gathered from multiple heterogeneous sources to study a target population of interest. In many use cases, such as medical studies or political polling, different sources incur different sampling costs. Observations often have associated group identities (for example, health markers, demographics, or political affiliations) and the relative composition of these groups may differ substantially, both among the source populations and between sources and target population. In this work, we study multi-source data collection under a fixed budget, focusing on the estimation of population means and group-conditional means. We show that naive data collection strategies (e.g. attempting to "match" the target distribution) or relying on standard estimators (e.g. sample mean) can be highly suboptimal. Instead, we develop a sampling plan which maximizes the effective sample size: the total sample size divided by $D_{\chi^2}(q\mid\mid\overline{p}) + 1$, where $q$ is the target distribution, $\overline{p}$ is the aggregated source distribution, and $D_{\chi^2}$ is the $\chi^2$-divergence. We pair this sampling plan with a classical post-stratification estimator and upper bound its risk. We provide matching lower bounds, establishing that our approach achieves the budgeted minimax optimal risk. Our techniques also extend to prediction problems when minimizing the excess risk, providing a principled approach to multi-source learning with costly and heterogeneous data sources.