LATA: Laplacian-Assisted Transductive Adaptation for Conformal Uncertainty in Medical VLMs

TL;DR

LATA is a novel, label-free, transductive refinement method that improves the reliability and efficiency of medical vision-language models under domain shift by smoothing probabilities on a graph, ensuring valid uncertainty estimates.

Contribution

LATA introduces a training- and label-free transductive adaptation technique that enhances conformal prediction for medical VLMs, reducing set size and class imbalance while maintaining coverage guarantees.

Findings

Reduces conformal prediction set size across multiple models and tasks.

Improves class-wise coverage balance without additional training.

Outperforms prior transductive methods with less computational cost.

Abstract

Medical vision-language models (VLMs) are strong zero-shot recognizers for medical imaging, but their reliability under domain shift hinges on calibrated uncertainty with guarantees. Split conformal prediction (SCP) offers finite-sample coverage, yet prediction sets often become large (low efficiency) and class-wise coverage unbalanced-high class-conditioned coverage gap (CCV), especially in few-shot, imbalanced regimes; moreover, naively adapting to calibration labels breaks exchangeability and voids guarantees. We propose \texttt{\textbf{LATA}} (Laplacian-Assisted Transductive Adaptation), a \textit{training- and label-free} refinement that operates on the joint calibration and test pool by smoothing zero-shot probabilities over an image-image k-NN graph using a small number of CCCP mean-field updates, preserving SCP validity via a deterministic transform. We further introduce a \textit{failure-aware} conformal score that plugs into the vision-language uncertainty (ViLU) framework, providing instance-level difficulty and label plausibility to improve prediction set efficiency and class-wise balance at fixed coverage. \texttt{\textbf{LATA}} is black-box (no VLM updates), compute-light (windowed transduction, no backprop), and includes an optional prior knob that can run strictly label-free or, if desired, in a label-informed variant using calibration marginals once. Across \textbf{three} medical VLMs and \textbf{nine} downstream tasks, \texttt{\textbf{LATA}} consistently reduces set size and CCV while matching or tightening target coverage, outperforming prior transductive baselines and narrowing the gap to label-using methods, while using far less compute. Comprehensive ablations and qualitative analyses show that \texttt{\textbf{LATA}} sharpens zero-shot predictions without compromising exchangeability.