Using Time Series Measures to Explore Family Planning Survey Data and Model-based Estimates

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the accuracy of the Family Planning Estimation Model (FPEM), a Bayesian time series model, in estimating contraceptive use by comparing it with survey data using diagnostic indices and visualizations.

Contribution

It introduces a method to assess FPEM's performance through time series diagnostics and visual analysis, improving understanding of model-data alignment.

Findings

FPEM estimates generally align with survey data in many regions.

Discrepancies identified in specific countries or regions.

Diagnostic tools help pinpoint where the model diverges from observed data.

Abstract

Family planning is a global development priority and a key indicator of reproductive health. Monitoring progress is challenged by gaps in survey data across countries. The United Nations Population Division addresses this with the Family Planning Estimation Model (FPEM), a Bayesian hierarchical time series model producing annual estimates of modern contraceptive use while sharing information across countries and regions. This paper evaluates how well FPEM estimates align with survey data using time series diagnostic indices from the wdiexplorer R package, which account for countries nested within sub-regions. Visualisation of survey data, modelled trajectories, and diagnostics enables assessment of model performance, highlighting where trends align and where discrepancies occur.