Propagation Characteristics of the April 21, 2023 CME

TL;DR

This study improves CME propagation modeling using stereoscopic data from two viewpoints with small separation, reducing uncertainties in arrival time predictions by incorporating arrival chronology to better constrain propagation direction.

Contribution

It demonstrates a method to address stereoscopic reconstruction uncertainties with limited viewpoints by integrating in-situ arrival times to refine CME propagation estimates.

Findings

Uncertainty in CME direction is approximately 20 degrees.

Arrival time predictions can be significantly improved by considering in-situ arrival chronology.

The approach enhances CME space weather forecasting accuracy.

Abstract

Accurate estimation of propagation characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is crucial for predicting their geoeffectiveness. Stereoscopic techniques to study the kinematics of CMEs generally have been carried out using remote sensing observations from three viewpoints, i.e. STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and SOHO. Since the loss of STEREO-B in 2014, stereoscopic reconstruction of CMEs has been restricted to the observations from only two viewpoints, i.e., STEREO-A and SOHO. When the angle of separation between STEREO-A and SOHO is small, it leads to larger uncertainties in the CME kinematics derived using stereoscopic techniques. In this paper, we demonstrate how this limitation can be addressed and how uncertainties in the estimation of CME kinematics and propagation direction can be reduced. For this purpose, we selected the CME of April 21, 2023, which was observed by two spacecraft, i.e. STEREO-A and SOHO, separated by a small 10 degree angle. Using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model on the remote-sensing observations near the Sun and the Advanced Drag-Based Model (ADBM) in the heliosphere, we estimated the arrival time of the CME at different locations in the heliosphere and compared it with the actual arrival time obtained from the in-situ measurements taken by three spacecraft, BepiColombo, STEREO-A and Wind. Our analysis reveals a directional uncertainty of approx 20 degree from observations from two viewpoints. These uncertainties significantly affect the arrival-time prediction of the CME. We consider the actual chronology of CME arrival times at STEREO-A and Wind as critical parameters to constrain the direction of propagation, which serves as a key input in the ADBM. The chronology of arrival of the CME ejecta at STEREO-A, which is 4.5 hrs earlier than at Wind, proved essential for resolving directional ambiguities in the GCS reconstruction model