Do we have a quantum computer? Expert perspectives on current status and future prospects

TL;DR

This study gathers expert opinions on the current state and future of quantum computing, highlighting the timeline for fault-tolerant systems, the practicality of personal quantum devices, and promising architectures.

Contribution

It provides qualitative insights from leading researchers on realistic expectations and future prospects of quantum computers, emphasizing expert consensus and differing viewpoints.

Findings

Current quantum machines are considered quantum computers by experts.

Decades are expected before scalable fault-tolerant quantum computers are built.

Quantum computers will likely remain centralized, accessed remotely rather than pocket-sized.

Abstract

The rapid growth of quantum information science and technology (QIST) in the 21st century has created both excitement and uncertainty about the field's trajectory. This qualitative study presents perspectives from leading quantum researchers, who are educators, on fundamental questions frequently posed by students, the public, and the media regarding QIST. Through in-depth interviews, we explored several issues related to QIST including the following key areas: the current state of quantum computing in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era and timelines for fault-tolerant quantum computers, the feasibility of personal quantum computers in our pockets, and promising qubit architectures for future development. Our findings reveal diverse yet convergent perspectives on these issues. While experts agree that the current machines with physical qubits that are being built currently should be called quantum computers, most estimated that it will take a decade to build a small fault-tolerant quantum computer, and several decades to achieve scalable systems capable of running Shor's factoring algorithm with quantum advantage. Regarding carrying a quantum computer in the pocket, experts viewed quantum computers as specialized tools that will remain in central locations such as data centers and can be accessed remotely for applications for which they are particularly effective compared to classical computers. Quantum researchers suggested that multiple platforms show promise, with no clear winner emerging. These insights provide valuable guidance for educators, policymakers, and the broader community in establishing realistic expectations for developments in this exciting field. Our findings can provide valuable information for educators to clarify student doubts about these important yet confusing issues related to quantum technologies.