Modeling medium and low voltage grids using population density

TL;DR

This paper presents a novel model linking population density to the configuration of medium and low voltage electrical grids, enabling realistic local and national scale estimations of grid structures.

Contribution

It introduces a new modeling approach that uses population data and the Kruskal algorithm to generate realistic grid networks at multiple scales.

Findings

Grid length estimates align with real-world data across countries

Population spread strongly influences grid configuration

Power law relationships describe network characteristics

Abstract

The expansion of global electricity distribution systems necessitates the deployment of massive infrastructure. Assessing its implications from a spatial and material perspective requires an understanding of the core drivers of a distribution grid configuration. Our model samples substation locations using a non-linear relationship with population density and constructs the network applying the Kruskal algorithm. This streamlined approach generates realistic grid structures at the local scale and provides accurate estimates of the total network length at the national scale. Using highly granular population data, this local model reveals a profound connection between population spread and distribution grid, which appears to persist at the global level. Potentially driven by the emergent properties of population scaling laws, the full network characteristics appear to be well described by multivariate power laws on aggregated population and area. Validated across 35 countries, these results provide new multi-scale tools for characterizing electrical infrastructure and reveal key determinants of distribution grid extent.