What hackers talk about when they talk about AI: Early-stage diffusion of a cybercrime innovation

TL;DR

This study analyzes cybercriminal discussions on AI over seven months, revealing their understanding, concerns, and attempts to exploit AI for illicit purposes, providing insights for law enforcement and policymakers.

Contribution

It offers a novel analysis of cybercriminal perceptions and strategies regarding AI, using a unique dataset and diffusion of innovation framework.

Findings

Cybercriminals show growing curiosity about AI's criminal applications.

There are attempts to misuse legitimate AI tools for illicit purposes.

Cybercriminals express doubts and anxieties about AI's effectiveness and security.

Abstract

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is raising concerns about its potential to transform cybercrime. Beyond empowering novice offenders, AI stands to intensify the scale and sophistication of attacks by seasoned cybercriminals. This paper examines the evolving relationship between cybercriminals and AI using a unique dataset from a cyber threat intelligence platform. Analyzing more than 160 cybercrime forum conversations collected over seven months, our research reveals how cybercriminals understand AI and discuss how they can exploit its capabilities. Their exchanges reflect growing curiosity about AI's criminal applications through legal tools and dedicated criminal tools, but also doubts and anxieties about AI's effectiveness and its effects on their business models and operational security. The study documents attempts to misuse legitimate AI tools and develop bespoke models tailored for illicit purposes. Combining the diffusion of innovation framework with thematic analysis, the paper provides an in-depth view of emerging AI-enabled cybercrime and offers practical insights for law enforcement and policymakers.