Dynamic Analysis and Optimal Prevention Strategies for Monkeypox Spread Modeled via the Mittag--Leffler Kernel

TL;DR

This paper models the spread of monkeypox using fractional calculus with the Mittag-Leffler kernel, analyzing control strategies like vaccination, treatment, and quarantine to determine optimal prevention measures.

Contribution

It introduces a fractional epidemiological model with the Atangana--Baleanu operator and evaluates combined control strategies for monkeypox prevention.

Findings

Simultaneous vaccination, treatment, and quarantine are most effective.

Model solutions are proven to exist and be unique.

Numerical simulations confirm the efficacy of combined controls.

Abstract

Monkeypox is a viral disease belonging to the smallpox family. Although it has milder symptoms than smallpox in humans, it has become a global threat in recent years, especially in African countries. Initially, incidental immunity against monkeypox was provided by smallpox vaccines. However, the eradication of smallpox over time and thus the lack of vaccination has led to the widespread and clinical importance of monkeypox. Although mathematical epidemiology research on the disease is complementary to clinical studies, it has attracted attention in the last few years. The present study aims to discuss the indispensable effects of three control strategies such as vaccination, treatment, and quarantine to prevent the monkeypox epidemic modeled via the Atangana--Baleanu operator. The main purpose is to determine optimal control measures planned to reduce the rates of exposed and infected individuals at the minimum costs. For the controlled model, the existence-uniqueness of the solutions, stability, and sensitivity analysis, and numerical optimal solutions are exhibited. The optimal system is numerically solved using the Adams-type predictor--corrector method. In the numerical simulations, the efficacy of the vaccination, treatment, and quarantine controls is evaluated in separate analyzes as single-, double-, and triple-control strategies. The results demonstrate that the most effective strategy for achieving the aimed outcome is the simultaneous application of vaccination, treatment, and quarantine controls.