TUBO: A Tailored ML Framework for Reliable Network Traffic Forecasting

TL;DR

TUBO is a novel machine learning framework designed for reliable network traffic forecasting, effectively handling burst patterns and providing uncertainty estimates, leading to significant improvements over existing methods in accuracy and proactive traffic engineering.

Contribution

TUBO introduces a tailored ML framework with burst processing and model selection, offering deterministic predictions with quantified uncertainty for improved network traffic forecasting.

Findings

Outperforms existing methods with 4x accuracy in forecasting

Achieves up to 94% accuracy in burst detection

Enhances proactive traffic engineering throughput by up to 9 times

Abstract

Traffic forecasting based network operation optimization and management offers enormous promise but also presents significant challenges from traffic forecasting perspective. While deep learning models have proven to be relatively more effective than traditional statistical methods for time series forecasting, their reliability is not satisfactory due to their inability to effectively handle unique characteristics of network traffic. In particular, the burst and complex traffic patterns makes the existing models less reliable, as each type of deep learning model has limited capability in capturing traffic patterns. To address this issue, we introduce TUBO, a novel machine learning framework custom designed for reliable network traffic forecasting. TUBO features two key components: burst processing for handling significant traffic fluctuations and model selection for adapting to varying traffic patterns using a pool of models. A standout feature of TUBO is its ability to provide deterministic predictions along with quantified uncertainty, which serves as a cue for identifying the most reliable forecasts. Evaluations on three real-world network demand matrix (DM) datasets (Abilene, GEANT, and CERNET) show that TUBO significantly outperforms existing methods on forecasting accuracy (by 4 times), and also achieves up to 94% accuracy in burst occurrence forecasting. Furthermore, we also consider traffic demand forecasting based proactive traffic engineering (TE) as a downstream use case. Our results show that compared to reactive approaches and proactive TE using the best existing DM forecasting methods, proactive TE powered by TUBO improves aggregated throughput by 9 times and 3 times, respectively.