Insights from Ex-Typhoon Halong (2025) -- An Arctic Cyclone of Tropical Origin

TL;DR

This study investigates the transformation and intensification of an Arctic cyclone originating from a tropical system, highlighting the role of warm sea surface temperatures and recent trends in tropical-origin Arctic cyclones.

Contribution

It provides new insights into how tropical-origin cyclones can intensify in Arctic regions due to ocean warming and interaction with other systems, with an analysis of recent increasing trends.

Findings

Warm SST anomalies preconditioned intensification.

Rapid deepening due to quasi-geostrophic lifting.

Increase in tropical-origin Arctic cyclones over decades.

Abstract

An Arctic cyclone, Ex-Typhoon Halong, produced strong winds and devastating flooding in southwestern Alaska during 11-12 October 2025. This study examines the evolution of Halong after its transition into an extratropical cyclone through the analysis of ERA5 reanalysis and WRF model simulations. It is found that warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the western North Pacific preconditioned ex-Halong for intensification by increasing water-vapor content and reducing static stability. Quasi-geostrophic lifting associated with a subsequent interaction with another extratropical cyclone led to the rapid deepening of ex-Halong. This case demonstrates that tropical cyclones can transition into extratropical systems that are intensified by anomalously warm ocean waters, exacerbating impacts in high latitudes. Further analyses indicate that an increasing fraction of Alaskan cyclones has originated in tropical latitudes (south of 30{\deg}N) in recent decades. In particular, the frequency of Arctic cyclones of tropical origin increased by a factor of four in August and by a factor of three in September during 1980-2025 compared with 1940-1979.